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Initially, Donald Trump gave the impression to embrace a strong position on the Ukrainian conflict. After making threats of "serious consequences" in August if Russia's president continued obstructing peace discussions, the former president eventually enacted major penalties on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision substantially affected the Russian leader's ability to support his military invasion in the region.

However, with his recently unveiled 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, which was created by US and Russian representatives lacking Ukrainian or EU input, the former president has seemingly returned to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Aggression

Trump's initiative would effectively reward the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while placing the country's political freedom in danger. Despite bold declarations that "The nation's independence will be upheld", large portions of the proposal effectively weaken that very independence. What represents a Russian ideal would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate experience, Trump continues to treat the war as a simple land disagreement, like handing Putin a portion of Ukraine's land will appease the leader. Yet, Putin's invasion is not merely about occupying a destroyed area of deindustrialized territory in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about the nation's democracy – and Putin's clear intention to destroy it so it stops functions as an appealing example for the Russian citizens of the responsible governance that his growing dictatorship withholds them.

Land Concessions

While maintaining in place the currently separated Ukrainian provinces of these areas, the initiative would force Ukraine to abandon the entire Donetsk region. In addition to benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its military have been unsuccessful to seize in more than a ten years of conflict, this giveaway would render Ukrainian military defenses severely compromised.

This region is the place of the nation's highly-touted "fortress belt", the well-established military defenses that are a critical barrier to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these positions, leaving Russian forces a open way to the capital in case he subsequently opt to renew the conflict.

Defense Reductions

Additionally, in a step that would enable future hostilities simpler for Russia, Trump would force the nation to reduce the scale of its troops from their current large number personnel to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, the proposal sets no similar restrictions on Russian forces.

In what appears as a gesture to Russia's attempts to depict Ukraine's legitimate government as radicals, Trump's proposal asserts: "Any radical ideology and actions must be condemned and forbidden." Apparently to highlight this point, it demands that "Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days" of a truce. However, Trump sets no requirement that the Russian leader jeopardize his regime by holding elections in Russia.

Security Assurances

To be sure, the proposal makes Russia commit not to "enter other states" and to "enshrine in legislation its position of non-aggression towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that the Russian leadership has violated similar treaties in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government pledged to recognize Ukraine's borders in exchange for giving up its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia promised to a truce and a return of seized territory in the Donbas to Kyiv – how should we have confidence in Russia on this occasion?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international defense commitments. Although the proposal threatens a "decisive joint defense action" should Russia restart its invasion, and provides that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the specifics include unclear to troubling. The plan would not only block Ukraine alliance membership but also prevent member states from deploying troops on Ukraine's soil, thereby preventing the reassurance force, reportedly led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to stop Putin from restoring his reduced forces, restocking, and attacking again.

World Concern

A separate supplementary accord reportedly would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any future "serious, deliberate, and ongoing military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "would be considered as an assault jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a armed reaction. But in contrast to a strong Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best defense against renewed invasion – the credibility of the supplementary deal would hinge on the dedication of Western powers, including Trump, to respond militarily to Putin's hostilities, a response they have {not