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Thhe first afternoon of this year’s Arc meeting took place in bright weather on Saturday, but the chunks of grass being kicked up in the Group One Prix du Cadran were a sign of the heavy downpour that had come down since Friday evening, changing the outlook and narrative of Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

“Very soft and it’s going to take a lot of getting,” was the assessment of the winning jockey after his victory on Tennessee Stud in the first Prix Chaudenay, a opinion that was shared by another rider, the victorious jockey aboard the trainer’s Caballo De Mar.

“It’s very soft but not heavy,” he said. “I think it would be an unfairness to call it heavy because they’ve done a excellent job of having us on the best part of the track, and tomorrow it will open out again to freshen it up, but it’s testing.”

For good or ill, the prospects of all seventeen runners have been influenced by the sudden worsening of the track, but the most obvious losers in the weather lottery have been the 3 runners from Japan, attempting to triumph where thirty-three compatriots have failed over the last fifty-six years.

Only a seven days ago, one contender, Alohi Alii and Croix Du Nord were all priced up between 8-1 and 16-1, the good-to-soft surface had lasted well beyond its typical mid-September end date at Longchamp and there was even speculation of the favorite approaching the top of the betting as punters favored the selection of Oisin Murphy to ride.

All three horses were also heading into the Arc off the back of a success in a recognised prep race, an rare level of quality for a Japan’s challenge. But the recent draw for starting positions left both the hopeful and Croix Du Nord stuck in outside gates, the rain has added to the scale of their mission and each are now offered at fourteen-to-one or bigger.

This does not, of course, mean that they cannot win, but all three will go to post with their opportunity significantly diminished. Japan’s competitions is conducted almost exclusively on good ground or quicker, so the stallions and mares in its breeding programme are speed-oriented horses. It typically requires a career-best performance to win an Arc, and the trio are unlikely to run up to their very best form on the rain-softened ground or, in the instance of one runner and another, from a outside stall.

The balance has tipped appreciably towards the Europeans, and runners from France, Ireland and Britain now fill the top six positions in the betting for what is an remarkably open edition of the European showpiece event.

The veteran trainer is aiming for a ninth victory in the Arc and will like his chances with Sosie, a nine-to-one choice, and Cualificar, at around 12-1.

The Irish trainer’s the favorite, undefeated in four starts this year including the Epsom Oaks and Irish Oaks, is a slight frontrunner from the French Group One victor, Aventure, who was a distance and a bit behind the third in second a year ago.

The mare, the beaten choice when fourth-placed previously, is a nine-to-one shot to deliver the trainer a unprecedented ninth Arc, while Daryz, a narrow second to the Japanese horse over a mile and a quarter at the course in their trial recently, is a 12-1 chance with the King George horse, the Ascot runner-up, and an additional trained entry, Cualificar.

All six have much to recommend them, but the some doubt about their chance too. Minnie Hauk has a tricky draw against the inside in gate 1, which has not housed the Arc winner since two thousand eight, while Aventure won a Vermeille in which the market leader, Whirl, obviously failed to run anywhere close to form. The mare, meanwhile, was a far short of her Ascot performance in her Arc warm-up at Kempton last month, and the runner has not been obviously improved as a four-year-old.

This leaves one option and another as appealing choices, not least because they are also the most likely runners to take a big step forward on the day that matters most.

Daryz, who was likely unlucky not to defeat the Japanese horse last time out, has just 6 runs in the book and while he is stepping up to a 12 furlongs for the debut, he is a product of the the owner’s bloodstock and almost sure to benefit from the additional quarter-mile.

The three-year-old (the race time), though, is nearly just as unexposed at 12 furlongs, having had his first start at the complete Arc distance just last month when he was victorious in the the trial. His trainer’s history in the event is impressive – he has already secured twice as many wins as any rival trainer in its 105-year existence – and he has plotted a strategic route towards the venue with his most recent young hopeful.

Cualificar was a easy victor of the Prix Niel – the launch-pad for Fabre’s six prior three-year-old Arc champions – and while he has something to find with the favorite and Aventure on ratings, looks almost sure to improve markedly on that form on Sunday.

The jockey will also have plenty of choices from an perfect stall in gate 8 and at around twelve-to-one with UK bookmakers, Cualificar is an excellent wager to give France’s greatest trainer one more victory in his country’s premier race.